ACCM：贵金属上涨，英镑兑美元走势平淡

美联储降息预期升温，黄金反弹

自周一以来，黄金价格已上涨逾3%，原因是市场对美联储即将降息的信心不断增强。上周数据显示，美国就业市场放缓，消费者信心显著下滑。根据CME集团的数据，市场预计到明年1月降息的概率已高达77%。

XAUUSD H1

在这一背景下，黄金（XAU/USD）在4000美元关口获得支撑后强势反弹，并展现出明显的上升动能。价格在收于4100美元关键枢轴位上方后，RSI指标接近超买区间，但仍有进一步上行空间，尤其是在趋势线上方回调并逼近历史高点时。如果价格回落，预计将在4000美元及下降趋势线附近获得支撑。

XAGUSD H1

白银（XAG/USD）同样展现强劲势头，在价格突破50美元关口后持续上扬，暂未显示放缓迹象。当前阻力位可能在52.5美元一线，正是上月价格急跌的区域。

英国失业率升至5%，劳动力市场走弱

英国失业率升至5%，高于此前的4.8%及市场预期的4.9%。据英国国家统计局（ONS）数据，这是自2021年初以来的最高水平，也使市场对12月英国央行降息的预期升温。此外，申请失业金人数增加2.9万人，远高于预期的1.76万人。

GBPUSD H1

消息公布后，英镑兑美元（GBP/USD）在1.3150水平获得支撑，形成类似针形K线的形态。预计价格将在1.32关口及下降趋势线附近遭遇阻力，而100日与200日移动平均线（黑线与蓝线）继续趋于汇合，显示出短期内市场可能维持盘整走势。

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