Geopolitical Risk Alert: Trump Expands Threats to Iran, Mexico, and Greenland

The detention of Nicolás Maduro appears to be the opening salvo in a broader, more aggressive US foreign policy doctrine, raising the geopolitical risk premium for currencies exposed to Latin America and the Middle East. President Trump has issued simultaneous warnings to Iran, Mexico, and Greenland, signaling a shift toward direct interventionism.

Key Flashpoints

International Fallout

The unilateral nature of the Venezuela operation has drawn sharp condemnation from the UN and Brazil, with President Lula describing it as “power over multilateralism.” For Forex traders, the risk is that US diplomatic isolation could lead to retaliatory trade measures or a diversification away from the USD in global reserves over the long term. In the short term, however, the sheer projection of US hard power is creating disparate impacts: crushing emerging market currencies perceived as “hostile” while boosting US energy and defense assets.