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Copper Crisis: Structural Deficit vs. Tariff Bubble
Abstract：A fierce debate has erupted on Wall Street regarding Copper, with UBS predicting a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to CAPEX failures, while Goldman Sachs warns of a short-term price bubble driven by tariff fears.
The copper market has become a battleground for macro strategists, with prices surging 22% in a month to breach $13,000/ton. However, Wall Street giants are sharply divided on whether this rally is the start of a super-cycle or a “tariff tantrum” destined to bust.
The Bear Case: The Tariff Hoarding Bubble
Goldman Sachs and Citi are urging caution. Their analysis suggests the current buying frenzy is driven by US importers front-running anticipated Trump-era tariffs rather than organic demand.
The Bull Case: The CAPEX Cliff
UBS takes a longer-term, structural view, arguing that the mining industry has failed to invest enough to meet 2026–2027 demand.
Trading View
The divergence suggests high volatility ahead. While the long-term energy transition thesis remains intact, the immediate path for Dr. Copper is heavily leveraged to US trade policy announcements in the coming weeks. A confirmation of tariffs could trigger the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” dynamic warned of by Goldman.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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