Oil Surge: WTI Reclaims $60 as Middle East Tensions Override Venezuela Deadlock

Crude oil prices staged a strong recovery on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) surging 2.45% to trade near $60.80 per barrel. The rally was primarily driven by renewed geopolitical fears involving Iran, which overshadowed a complex diplomatic and commercial standoff regarding Venezuelan supply.

• Current Price: $60.80
• Daily Change: +2.45%
• US Investment Target: $100 billion

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns

Traders are once again pricing in supply disruption risks stemming from the Middle East. Escalating tensions involving Iran have reignited fears of constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows. This “war premium” provided the immediate catalyst for WTI to break a four-day consolidation streak and hit two-month highs.

Exxon CEO 'Hardballs' Trump on Venezuela

While the Middle East provided the bullish spark, the supply-side narrative is complicated by developments in South America. The Trump administration has been pushing US oil giants to invest at least $100 billion to revitalize Venezuela's crippled oil sector following the seizure of assets from the Maduro regime.

However, a meeting at the White House last Friday revealed a stark divide between Washington and Big Oil. ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods reportedly told President Trump directly that Venezuela “does not meet the conditions for investment.” Woods and other executives cited the need for massive infrastructure repair—costing tens of billions—and concrete legal reforms before risking capital.

Trumps reaction was characteristically blunt; he told reporters he “didn't like” Woods' attitude and suggested excluding Exxon from the Venezuelan market.

The Supply Outlook

For the Forex market, specifically USD/CAD, the friction suggests that Venezuelan oil will not flood the market anytime soon.

• Chevron remains the only major US player with a “firm commitment,” aiming to boost output by 50% over 18-24 months.
• Exxon and others remain on the sidelines, waiting for stability.

This delay in Venezuelan supply restoration supports the current bullish undertone in crude prices, as the market remains tighter than the White Houses ambitious production targets would suggest.

Technicals

• Momentum Signal: Break of four-day consolidation
• Recent High: Two-month highs