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Oil Swings: Geopolitical Risk Returns as West Snubs Trump’s 'Peace Commission'
Abstract：Crude oil markets face a V-shaped volatility session as major Western allies snub President Trump’s 'Peace Commission' for Gaza, reigniting supply risk premiums.
Crude oil markets have experienced a classic reversal. WTI Crude dipped below the key $60 per barrel handle on Thursday following President Trump's declaration, only to rebound during Friday's Asian session.
The Diplomatic Void
The volatility stems from the inauguration of the US-led Peace Commission in Davos. However, key NATO allies—including the UK, France, and Germany—refused to sign the declaration, refusing to strip risk premiums from oil prices.
- Market Reaction: WTI rebounded to trade near $59.75, up 0.7% intraday.
- European powers and Israel were notably absent, raising doubts about enforceability.
Inventory Overhang Persists
Compounding the price action is bearish fundamental data. The EIA reported a surprise build in US crude inventories of 3.6 million barrels, alongside a massive 6 million barrel jump in gasoline stocks.
Technicals
- Technical Trend: WTI remains in a bearish trend below the psychological $60 resistance.
- Strategic Outlook: Saxo Bank strategists suggest physical market oversupply limits upside potential.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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