Harmovest Capital | Daily Report: Will Hormuz Risks Push Gold Higher?

14 April 2026

Key Highlights

• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated

• Safe-haven demand continues to rise

• The U.S. Dollar Index remains under pressure

Market Review

U.S. Threat to Block the Strait of Hormuz Sparks a New Dangerous Standoff

U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. military would move to block the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could trigger a dangerous new confrontation. Such an action may draw U.S. forces into a prolonged struggle to control a critical strategic chokepoint while intensifying global economic losses resulting from the conflict.

Following the collapse of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan, President Trump stated that naval forces would begin intercepting vessels paying Iran to pass through the strait and initiate mine-clearing operations. He added that any Iranian forces firing upon U.S. military or commercial vessels would face decisive retaliation.

According to the United States Central Command, the blockade was scheduled to begin at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Monday. Earlier, Vice President JD Vance concluded 21 hours of talks in Islamabad without reaching an agreement, accusing Tehran of rejecting U.S. conditions related to its nuclear program.

Although the U.S. military possesses the resources and capability to enforce such a blockade, current and former officials warn that maintaining long-term control of the waterway could prove significantly more challenging.

This move marks a new and unstable phase in the six-week conflict, shifting from targeted military strikes to sustained maritime security operations. The prospect of a blockade raises the risk of a high-stakes confrontation, testing which side can withstand greater economic and strategic pressure，Tehran or the global market.

The narrow waterway remains vulnerable to mines, drones, and fast-attack vessels operating along Iran‘s coastline. Despite repeated claims of heavy damage to Iran’s naval forces, the paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to maintain a substantial fleet of agile patrol boats capable of exerting control over the strait.

While President Trump indicated that multiple countries would assist in enforcing the blockade, the structure of such a coalition remains unclear. Several European and Gulf officials have previously expressed support for multinational efforts to restore freedom of navigation, though major nations emphasize that sustained ceasefire conditions and international authorization would be required.

The resulting oil supply disruption has already spread across Asia, forcing factories to limit production to conserve energy, while some fuel stations have introduced rationing measures. Aviation fuel shortages have begun to emerge in parts of Asia and Europe, with inventory levels potentially requiring months to recover. For Gulf nations, the economic losses could be the most severe in decades.

Affected Financial Instruments

• U.S. Dollar

• Gold

• S&P 500

Summary

As geopolitical instability remains elevated, market risk aversion continues to increase. This has significantly limited the downside potential in precious metals and gradually strengthened bullish momentum in gold.

Today's Key Event

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI)

Market attention will focus on the upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index data. Historical data indicates that inflation in the United States remains persistently elevated, leading markets to anticipate that the reading may come in above expectations.

Affected Assets

• U.S. Dollar

• Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum)

• U.S. Equity Indices

Today's Trading Strategy

Bias: Long on Precious Metals

Market Sentiment Analysis

Fear & Greed Index

The Fear & Greed Index is a key gauge of investor sentiment, reflecting whether market participants are driven by fear or greed. The latest reading stands at 41 (Fear), compared with the previous level of 31, indicating that risk-off sentiment remains elevated.

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly driven up energy prices, raising concerns about persistent inflation and encouraging central banks to maintain higher interest rates. Additionally, tariff pressures on the U.S. economy have further increased demand for safe-haven assets, including gold and silver.

As risk aversion continues to rise, investors may consider positioning in:

• Gold

• Silver

• U.S. Treasuries

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD (Gold)

Following President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, market risk sentiment cooled significantly, leading to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and indirectly supporting further upside potential in gold.

From a technical perspective, gold has successfully broken above the 4787 resistance level, signaling continued bullish momentum in the near term. Investors are advised to maintain long positions, with key support levels to monitor around 4700.