Oil Surge Sparks Bond Market Rout as Metals Collapse, Dragging U.S. Equities Lower

Market Overview

A renewed spike in crude oil prices reignited inflation concerns, triggering a broad-based selloff across global bond markets. All three major U.S. equity indexes closed more than 1% lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 retreating from record highs and the Nasdaq snapping a six-week winning streak. Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, climbing more than 2% against the broader market decline.

In early Asian trading on Monday, bullish momentum in oil markets continued to build, with Brent crude opening higher, while U.S. equity futures and cryptocurrencies extended their weekend weakness. Risk-off sentiment and inflation-driven positioning remain dominant themes across global markets.

Sector HighlightsTechnology & Semiconductors Cool Off

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4%, turning negative for the week.

NVIDIA fell more than 4%, ending a seven-session winning streak, while Micron Technology and Intel both dropped over 6%. AI computing newcomer Cerebras Systems tumbled 10% on its second trading day after listing.

Meanwhile, Microsoft bucked the broader weakness and gained more than 3% after billionaire investor Bill Ackman disclosed a recent increase in his position.

Violent Swings Across Bond and FX Markets

Long-duration sovereign bonds faced historic selling pressure, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surging toward the 4.60% level, marking a fresh one-year high. Meanwhile, 30-year U.K. gilt yields and U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 1998 and 2007, respectively.

The stronger U.S. dollar continued to pressure non-dollar currencies. The Japanese yen weakened toward the psychologically critical 160 level against the dollar, a zone widely viewed as a potential intervention threshold, while the offshore yuan slipped below 6.81.

Energy Soars While Metals Collapse

Oil bulls remained firmly in control, with WTI crude jumping more than 4% intraday and posting weekly gains exceeding 10%.

In sharp contrast, industrial and precious metals were heavily liquidated. Gold futures plunged nearly 4%, while silver futures crashed more than 10%. Copper and tin futures in both New York and London markets declined between 4% and 5%.

Cryptocurrency Market Under Pressure

As long-end interest rates surged, liquidity conditions for risk assets deteriorated sharply.

Bitcoin briefly fell below the $79,000 mark, retreating nearly 4% from intraday highs and remaining under pressure throughout the weekend.

Key Themes AheadSelling U.S. Treasuries, Buying Japanese Government Bonds？

Japanese government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs, fueling growing speculation on Wall Street that a sizable capital repatriation wave may be underway. Several asset managers are positioning for Japanese investors, who collectively hold roughly $1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, to gradually shift funds back into domestic Japanese bonds.

In March alone, Japanese sovereign bond funds recorded a net inflow of $700 million, setting a new historical record. However, expectations for expanded fiscal spending by the Japanese government continue to complicate the supply-demand outlook for JGBs, meaning a full-scale capital rotation has yet to materialize.

Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Portfolio Moves

Berkshire Hathaway invested $2.6 billion into Delta Air Lines during Q1. Holdings in Alphabet Class A shares surged more than 200%, making it Berkshires seventh-largest position and the biggest ranking jump among its top ten holdings.

For the first time in nearly seven years, Berkshire completely exited its position in Amazon, while also fully selling stakes in Visa, Mastercard, and UnitedHealth Group.

The firm also reduced its stake in Chevron by 35%, while maintaining its holdings in Apple unchanged after trimming the position for three consecutive quarters.

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