EURUSD | Bearish Continuation & Downside Potential

Euro / U.S. Dollar Short 14 hours ago 1 2 Grab this chart Grab this chart 7 7 253 EURUSD | Bearish Continuation & Downside Potential Fundamental View EUR/USD remains under pressure as the U.S. dollar gains support from renewed expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warshs hawkish Jackson Hole remarks increased market expectations for a September rate hike, while higher U.S. short-term Treasury yields have strengthened the dollar. The euro therefore faces additional pressure as the current policy-rate differential favors the USD. Upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data could be important catalysts for the next directional move. Technical View EUR/USD is trading below the descending trendline, indicating that sellers continue to control the short-term structure. The recent sharp rejection from the 1.1640–1.1660 area reinforces the bearish setup. A sustained move below 1.15775 could expose 1.15500 and potentially open the path toward the downside targets highlighted on the chart. SMC View From an SMC perspective, the recent breakdown can be viewed as a bearish displacement following rejection from the premium/resistance area. The market appears to be seeking lower liquidity, with sell-side liquidity resting beneath the recent lows. A retest of the 1.16200–1.16375 resistance area followed by bearish rejection would strengthen the continuation setup. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 1.16200 1.16375 Support: 1.15775 1.15500 Invalidation: 1.16500 Trading Scenario Bearish scenario: If EUR/USD remains below 1.16200–1.16375 and sellers maintain control, a break below 1.15775 could trigger further downside toward 1.15500 and the lower targets shown on the chart. Bullish alternative: A sustained break and close above 1.16375 could weaken the bearish structure. A move above 1.16500 would invalidate the current bearish setup and could signal a deeper recovery. Professional Insights The key area to monitor is the 1.16200–1.16375 resistance zone. Rather than chasing the initial decline, confirmation through a rejection, lower high, or bearish structure shift may provide a more disciplined setup. The bearish thesis remains stronger while price trades below the descending trendline and 1.16500. This Move Is Supported By • Hawkish Fed expectations • Rising U.S. rate-hike expectations • Elevated U.S. Treasury yields • Renewed USD demand • Bearish short-term EUR/USD structure • Rejection from the 1.16200–1.16375 resistance area Risk Management Manage position size carefully and avoid entering solely on a single candle break. Consider waiting for confirmation around the key levels and maintaining a predefined risk-to-reward ratio. Market conditions can change quickly around major U.S. economic releases. Disclaimer This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk according to your individual strategy.