Poverty, education levels draw battle lines in French election

div classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodivpBy Leigh Thomasp

pPARIS Reuters – As French President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen head into a presidential runoff on April 24 promising to tackle high inflation, an analysis of firstround voting data shows the farright challenger with an edge in lowincome areas hardest hit by soaring costs.pdivdivdiv classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodiv

pSensing people‘s frustration in the face of rocketing inflation, Le Pen pivoted her campaign from her usual antiimmigration, eurosceptic message to how she would help restore families’ budgets.p

pMacron won 27.8 of votes ahead of Le Pens 23.2 in the first round of voting on Sunday, but there were big regional divergences with election battle lines drawn along local economic, social and demographic contours.p

pThe demographic analysis of the results showed Le Pens promise best resonated where it matters the most – in areas with lower living standards, where more people drop out of high school, have lower life expectancy, and suffer from more crime.p

pThe analysis also suggests Macron will have a tough time reaching voters outside his base of educated, middleclass city dwellers.p

p

ppGraphic: Results from first round of Frances presidential election – https:graphics.reuters.comFRANCEELECTIONSjnvwekdkbvwchart.pngp

p

ppIn its analysis, Reuters used a machine learning algorithm to rank 45 demographic and economic variables according to how well they correlate with candidates scores in regional administrative districts, known in France as departments.p

pAs in 2017, economic wealth and education levels were key determinants on Sunday whether departments leaned towards Macron or Le Pen, although the correlation with higher standards of living was stronger this time for Macron.p

pConversely, Macron did worse and Le Pen significantly better in areas with more poverty. On average, 12.7 of the population lives in poverty in departments where Macron came in first, and 16 where Le Pen got the most votes.p

pWith record high inflation, polls have repeatedly shown dwindling purchasing power as voters top concern heading into the election.p

p

ppGraphic: Macron scored lowest in high poverty areas – https:graphics.reuters.comFRANCEELECTIONDEMOGRAPHICdwvkrqbqopmchart.png p

pOfficial government data indicate that France saw broad gains in gross disposable income during Macrons presidency although the spike in inflation over the last six months is quickly eating that away. p

pBut his weak results in high unemployment and low income areas suggest his message that he is best placed to reverse the trend is falling on deaf ears in areas that need help the most.p

pA 25billioneuro 27 billion government package, worth 1 of Frances economic output, to help people cope with high energy prices and inflation has done little to ease voter concerns.p

pThe factor most closely correlated with Le Pens performance was life expectancy, which often serves as a catchall barometer for general economic and social wellbeing.p

pIn departments where Le Pen came first, females born in 2021 had life expectancy one year shorter than where Macron won.p

pIn the two industrial northern departments where Le Pen did best – the Aisne and PasdeCalais – female life expectancy was two years below the national average. In Aisne, where Le Pen had her best firstround result with 39 of votes, nearly 30 of residents have no upper school diplomas, compared with a national average of 21.p

pTaking note, for his first campaign stop after Sundays vote, Macron took the fight against Le Pen straight to the poor northern town of Denain.p

p

ppGraphic: Le Pen outperformed in areas with high dropout rates – https:graphics.reuters.comFRANCEELECTIONDEMOGRAPHICSlgvdwqynqpochart.pngp

p

ppHeading into the runoff round, Macron and Le Pen will both be also hunting for votes of supporters of hardleft leader JeanLuc Melenchon, who came in third in the first round just behind Le Pen with 22 of the votes.p

pThe veteran firebrand leftist did best in urban areas with a higher share of young, universityeducated voters who find Macron has drifted too far to the right for their tastes.p

pMelenchon won nearly half of the votes in northeastern Paris commuter suburb of SeineSaintDenis, where immigrants make up more than 30 of the population – the highest in France.p

pWith those votes up for grabs, Le Pen and Macron will first have to convince people in the department to simply bother to vote as abstentions were higher there than anywhere else outside of Corsica.p

p1 0.9203 eurosp

p

pp Reporting by Leigh Thomas Editing by Tomasz Janowskip

divdivdiv classBodysc17zpet90 cdBBJodivdivdiv