Goldman Sachs Cuts Oil Price Forecast to $65-$80 per Barrel

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has joined the chorus of Wall Street banks slashing their oil price forecasts, signaling a shift in crudes future to the $60s range. The move comes as economic growth in the US faces mounting challenges, prompting the bank to rethink its earlier stance. Initially, Goldman held firm on its projections despite OPEC+ announcing plans to ramp up oil production this month. However, in a recent note, the bank adjusted its Brent outlook, dropping the expected range from $70-$85 to $65-$80 per barrel.

Daan Struyven, Goldman‘s head of commodities research, noted, “We expect Brent to stay above $70 a barrel in coming months,” though he added, “we no longer see $70 as the price floor.” With Brent futures currently lingering around $71, the bank’s revised forecast reflects a broader pessimism sweeping through financial circles. This follows similar downgrades by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp., both of which now predict Brent will settle in the high $60s during the latter half of the year.

Other heavyweights like Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. have long anticipated a dip, forecasting Brent to close out the year in the mid-to-low $60s. Citigroup, the most bearish of the bunch, projects crude averaging $60 a barrel in Q2 and Q3, before sliding to $55 by Q4. JPMorgan, meanwhile, sees an average of $61 next year, with prices potentially dipping to $50 if US President Donald Trump succeeds in keeping sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil flowing.

Beyond Wall Street, even the once-bullish oil trading giants—Vitol Group and Gunvor Group—have soured on crudes prospects. This collective gloom contrasts sharply with the relief felt by consumers and central banks, who welcome cheaper oil after years of soaring inflation. President Trump has also hailed the decline, which eases pressure on American wallets.

Yet, the news isn‘t all rosy. For US shale oil producers and OPEC nations, led by Saudi Arabia, the falling prices spell trouble, threatening financial stability in an industry already stretched thin. Wall Street’s early 2025 outlook offers little hope for a rebound, with banks signaling that crudes days of climbing higher may be on hold. As economic uncertainty looms, Goldman Sachs and its peers are bracing for a market where oil price forecasts in the $60s could become the new norm, reshaping global energy dynamics for months to come.